Log — Reality assessments
What can quantum computers actually do?
Every assessment separates theory, laboratory demonstration, hardware demonstration, practical capability, roadmap claims, and disputes — each with a date, a source, a scale, and the hardware it applies to. No scores, no blending.
All assessments10 topics
5 classified assessments · sourcedDoes quantum computing break AES encryption?No. A quantum computer cannot break AES, and no machine anyone has planned could either. In theory, Grover's algorithm (1996) cuts a key's strength in half, so AES-128 ac6 classified assessments · sourcedCan quantum computers crack Bitcoin?No. No quantum computer can crack Bitcoin today, and nothing close to the needed machine exists as of 2026. The real long-term risk is to Bitcoin's signatures, called ECD5 classified assessments · sourcedWill quantum computers revolutionize drug discovery?No, not yet, and "revolutionize" oversells it. As of August 2026, real quantum hardware has only simulated molecules of a few atoms. Any laptop does those sums exactly in5 classified assessments · sourcedHow close are fault-tolerant quantum computers?Closer than ever, but not here yet (as of August 2026). The key physics step is done: in December 2024, Google's Willow chip showed error correction that gets better as y4 classified assessments · sourcedDoes quantum computing speed up machine learning?No, not for machine learning on ordinary data. As of August 2026, no quantum speedup has been shown for any practical machine-learning task. The big "exponential" claims 4 classified assessments · sourcedCan quantum computers solve optimization problems faster?Not today, and for most problems maybe never in a way that matters. As of August 2026, no quantum speedup has been shown on any real-world optimization job. The proven sp4 classified assessments · sourcedCan quantum computers fold proteins?No. As of August 2026, quantum hardware has "folded" only toy grid models of about 6–10 amino acids, puzzles a laptop solves exactly by checking every option. Meanwhile o5 classified assessments · sourcedHas quantum advantage been achieved?Yes, but only in a narrow sense. Quantum advantage means a quantum computer beating the best ordinary computers at some task, and so far that has happened only on special6 classified assessments · sourcedCan quantum computers break RSA-2048?No. As of 2026, no quantum computer has factored anything bigger than toy numbers like 15 and 21. Breaking RSA-2048 would take roughly a million physical qubits running e5 classified assessments · sourcedCan quantum computers predict the weather?No. As of August 2026, no quantum computer has ever run a weather forecast, and there is no evidence that current or near-term quantum hardware would help. The algorithms